Is it a Timing or a Probability Effect? Four Simulations and an Application of Transition Rate Models to the Analysis of Unemployment Exit

Among the applications of event history analysis, in the last 10 years the lion's share has been played by proportional transition rate model. This type of models suffers from a major draw-back: it does not allow us to distinguish whether a covariate affects the event timing (the event occurs sooner/later) or the overall probability of the ultimate event occurrence (the chances of occurrence are constantly higher/lower). Thus, a positive/negative effect of a covariate found using a proportional transition rate model might reflect an acceleration/deceleration in the timing of the event and/or a high/low probability of the ultimate event occurrence (Yamaguchi, 1992). This paper shows how this problem can be reformulated in terms of the proportionality/non proportionality of the covariate effects. A twofold solution to disentangle the timing/probability problem is presented: this solution consists of a test of the proportionality of the covariate effects and a computation of the survival function at the end of the time interval studied. Two applications are discussed. The first one is based on four simulated processes. The second is based on an analysis of unemployment exit in Italy, with particular attention being paid to the effects of unemployment benefits. In the conclusion, implications for future applications of event history analysis are discussed.     

土地利用规划管理的供给侧结构性改革

研究目的:构建土地利用规划供给侧结构性改革框架,发挥土地利用规划配置土地要素的关键基础和完善土地利用结构的核心作用,在供给侧结构性改革中优化土地供应的数量、空间和时序结构。研究方法:文献研究,比较分析,案例研究。研究结果:在系统论视角下,土地利用规划的供给侧结构性改革应从协调、有序和系统三个视角出发,从数量角度提高土地利用供求的匹配度和土地利用效率,从空间角度统筹各类横向规划布局和各级主体纵向行政尺度,从时序角度协调规划的机动弹性、细节空间和地类动态变更机制。研究结论:土地利用规划的供给侧结构性改革应坚持协调的系统观、有序的系统观和动态的系统观,着重对土地利用中的数量关系、空间关系和时序关系进行调整,形成功能协调、层次有序和动态反馈的土地利用规划制度,促进土地资源的高效配置,进而推动国民经济的调整和升级。     

High-speed rail transport valuation and conjecture shocks

In this paper, we derive the optimal investment policy in a high-speed rail transport (HSR) project. We assume that the source of uncertainty comes from the annual demand, and that it follows a geometric Brownian motion with jumps of random magnitude, occurring in random times, according to a Poisson process. We assess the impact of these shocks on the demand threshold, along with the investment opportunity value and option to differ. We consider several distributions for these jumps, and we compare with the no-jumps case. Numerical results are presented, showing the importance of assumptions about the underlying stochastic process.     

Linking knowledge, entry timing and internationalization strategy

This paper contributes to the current internationalization theory by linking the characteristics of the firm's resource-base, its market-entry timing orientation and international growth orientation so as to shed more light on internationalization strategies. By employing multi-industry data, we find that the nature of the firm's knowledge, its entry timing orientation and international growth orientation are related to its internationalization strategy. Among other results, we find that the firm's accumulated expertise is positively related for both the international growth orientation and entry timing orientation. The international growth orientation, in turn, is related both to the path type of internationalization the firm employs as well as the geographical diversification in market entry. In other words, the results suggest that the firm's resource-base influences on both its entry timing orientation and to the internationalization strategy. These and other findings are discussed with regard to their scholarly and managerial implications.     

Why Are Women Delaying Motherhood in Germany?

Abstract

German fertility trends show that the average age at which women have their first child has increased in recent decades. Moreover, researchers have argued that delayed maternity is an important factor in reduced fertility. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), this paper contributes to the debate about maternity timing and reduced fertility in Germany by analyzing some of the factors determining the delay of motherhood. The results suggest that German women who have accumulated more years of education and longer work experience at the time of marriage delay motherhood more. On the other hand, women with higher labor income and a higher contribution to household income delay motherhood less. The results confirm that women consolidate their careers before motherhood in order to reduce career costs. Therefore, if fertility rates are to be increased in Germany further policies that aim to combine women's careers and motherhood need to be developed.     

Pairs trading: does volatility timing matter?

Pairs trading is a dollar-neutral trading strategy. Using the components of two major stock indices, the S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225, this article deals with the performance of a pairs trading system based on various pairs selection methods (distance, stationarity, cointegration) over a 10-year period. On both markets, using a classical framework, cointegration appears superior and effective. On the U.S. market and also in Japan to a lower extent, pairs trading strategies exhibited an impressive performance during the 2008 financial crisis. Bearish periods are associated with a high level of the VIX index: the ‘investor fear gauge’. Using a modified trading system, this article examines the link between pairs trading performance and volatility/VIX timing. It is shown that for the best selection technique (cointegration), timing volatility has no economic value in a pairs trading context.     

Determinants of early entry: governance choices and syndicate networks in US venture capitals' Internet investments

This research addresses the issues of governance choices and attributes of network participants as determinants of early entry by integrating a network perspective into the strategic management literature. Our arguments are tested using data on 813 Internet portfolio companies' investments by the venture capitals (VCs), one of the most rapidly developing sectors of the financial service industry in the USA. The results provide little evidence that governance choices between sole investments and syndicate networks may affect the decision to invest in early movers in the Internet industry. Nevertheless, the attributes of VC investors in initial investments affect the likelihood of investing in early movers. The propensity for syndicate investments in early start-ups in the Internet industry increases with the presence of heterogeneous investors' attributes but decreases with the presence of homogeneous investors' attributes.     

Timing is money: managing the floor in sales interaction at street-market stalls

Abstract

This article considers ‘pricing’, that is, offers and requests for the price of sales items, as a communicative practice deployed by vendors and customers during sales interaction on street markets. It examines the organisation of sales interaction by pursuing the question of how and when market participants, vendors and customers alike, embed offers and requests for price information within their interaction. The analysis suggests that pricing is deployed as a technique to manage the ‘floor’ and the interaction at the stall. For example, offers for items are being tailored to customers’ display of interest and commitment to particular items, and requests for price information are deployed in ways that challenge anticipated offers, that is, offers that are about to be made by a vendor. The data, field observation and video-recording have been gathered at market stalls in London and Berlin.     

Some results on relocation policies

In this paper, we derive general results concerning optimal relocation policy under some assumptions. We consider a firm that is located in a specific location, producing at a certain level of efficiency. With time, the firm can decide to change its location to a new and more efficient site, paying relocation costs. Moreover, we assume that these new sites become available according to a Poisson process, and that the levels of efficiency improvement inherent to each one of these sites are random variables. With this framework, we characterise certain parameters of the optimal relocation policy. In particular, we characterise the expected relocation time and we prove that it depends on the distribution of the level of efficiency improvement only through an expected value. Therefore, the optimal policy shows a kind of robustness in terms of the stochastic assumptions of the problem, which has a major impact in the application of relocation policies. In addition, we also characterise the optimal relocation time. Impacts on the final results driven by the characteristics of the firm's original location site, the market environment and the way in which risk is modelled are studied numerically. The overall results are in line with economic intuition.